All the different forecasts for ringgit’s movement

All the different forecasts for ringgit’s movement

Header image source for the RM600 is from bnm.gov.my

My good friend, Miichael Yeoh who’s a mortgage expert from Penang says that he hopes that ringgit will continue to rally for another 10 days since it has rallied for the last 10 days. This was the article I sent to him: 10 Day Rally. Ringgit on a roll, what’s next? He is definitely positive about our ringgit and I also wish that his wish would come true. What about the analysts in the market? What do you think their thoughts are for ringgit for the next week? Here are all their views.

Article in nst.com.my. Kenanga Investment Bank Bhd says that ringgit is likely to strengthen well below 4.55 against the US dollar next week. The reasons include a limited negative impact on the British pound from the Bank of England’s recent rate cut and ongoing signs of a United States (US) economic slowdown.

Bank Muamalat Malaysia Bhd chief economist Dr Mohd Afzanizam Abdul Rashid said that anticipation for a US rate cut continues to gain momentum. Mohd Afzanizam said that given the sharp appreciation of the ringgit recently, it may take some time to breach the current support level as market participants might want to cash out some of the gains. He expects the ringgit to range between RM4.48 and RM4.49 next week.

UOB Kay Hian Wealth Advisors head of investment research Mohd Sedek Jantan said the ringgit is forecast to continue its rally next week. He anticipates the ringgit will continue to strengthen as the US dollar struggles to maintain its current value. With the Bank of Japan having hiked interest rates, investors may shift their investments to emerging markets. Read here for even more details: Article in nst.com.my

My forecast / prediction and wish?

I think any exchange rate below RM4.50 to US$1 is a good sign that people start to realise that the safe haven currency also needs its economy to grow so that it can continue to be a safe haven. Else, if things are turning south, of course this should be reflected in the currency value. Plus the fact that people are now anticipating a much more volatile Middle East meant that things will get gloomier instead of clearer days.

The below is what reports are saying about geo-political risk:

If a bigger war does start…

Always remember that when any war breaks out, the beneficiaries would be companies supplying arms yeah. Malaysia is not a producer of such goods but many of the countries are. So, do watch intently and objectively and sometimes we can see why war is never the wish of the people yeah. However, leaders of some of these countries may think otherwise.

Happy deciding and acting based what you think.

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