IQI Data: Johor’s State Election Won’t Hurt Property Market

Press Release: – IQI Data: Johor’s State Election Election Won’t Hurt Property Market

Kuala Lumpur, 29 June 2026 — Johor is heading to a state election on 11 July, but the poll won’t hurt the property market, according to an analysis released today by Juwai IQI Co-Founder and Group CEO Kashif Ansari. 

“I advise consumers that Johor home sales might slow in the weeks around the 11 July vote. However, they will then bounce back, with the full year not affected at all,” Mr Ansari said. “To draw this conclusion, we looked at the transaction data, the pattern from past elections, and the leads and inquiries our own team members are fielding.” 

“When Malaysia held both Johor and federal elections in 2022, home sales and total sales values climbed by more than 25%. Most of that strength came from the reopening of the Singapore border that year, of course. Even so, it’s clear the voting did not hurt the market.” 

Affordable Homes Dominated in First Quarter 

“To understand how the market might react to the elections, we started by looking at the first quarter data. NAPIC’s preliminary figures give us a baseline against which to measure any potential impact from the election. 

“The data shows that buyers purchased 8,730 homes in the first three months of the year, worth RM4.45 billion in total. That is down 9.5 per cent in volume from a year earlier.

“One reason the number of purchases was lower this year is that foreign buyers pulled back, especially from Singapore and China, following January’s doubling of the foreign-buyer stamp duty. 

“We think foreign buyers will return by year-end to the same levels of activity as before the new stamp duty. 

“The price differential between Singapore and Johor is still large enough for them to buy in Malaysia, pay the higher stamp duty, and still save money compared to buying in Singapore. Data from both countries shows that the average home in Johor cost RM487,128² in the first quarter, versus RM2.1 million³ for the average resale HDB flat in Singapore. 

“The pull-back in foreign demand meant that more affordable properties were by far the most popular in Johor in the first quarter. 

Homes priced at RM500,000 and bow accounted for about 63% of residential transactions in the quarter, and homes at RM300,000 and below for close to 38%.

“Which type of property was most popular? Terraced houses, with one, two and three-storey terraces together making up more than half of all residential deals statewide.” 

Past Election Years Suggest No Impact in 2026 

Mr Ansari said, “We also looked back at how the housing market behaved in a previous general election year. If you remember, in 2022 there was both a Johor state election in March and a national election in November. That makes it a close match to what Johor faces in 2026. 

“Even with two elections in one year, the market kept working normally in 2022. The number of homes bought in Johor rose by about a quarter, and the total value of those purchases rose by nearly 30 per cent.

“An earlier election year tells a similar story from Johor’s perspective. Malaysia held a national election in 2013, and the number of homes bought in Johor jumped by about 16%, according to NAPIC, even though transactions fell across Malaysia as a whole.

“That was the biggest increase of any major state that year. So even during an election year when the national market was weak, Johor’s housing demand held up. That is a good precedent for 2026. 

“My forecast for 2026 is that some Johor buyers may choose to wait until the state vote is behind them. That means we may see fewer transactions in the current quarter. 

“But once the election is over, the buyers who held off will get back into the market, and make up for lost time. Over the full year, I believe the election in Johor will make little or even zero difference to how many homes are bought.” 

Big Infrastructure Is Most Important in Long Run 

Mr Ansari also said, “Will the election have any medium term impacts? I think more important than the election will be the opening of the Singapore Rapid Transit System Link later this year and the growth created by the Johor-Singapore Special Economic Zone. These are massively important initiatives for Johor’s economy and property market. The state can leverage them to boost household incomes and make homes more affordable to more of the orang Johor. 

“If I go up to 30,000 feet and look down at Johor, I can see that it is still one of Malaysia’s strongest residential markets on a fundamentals basis and has much growth ahead of it. That growth will be supported by cross-border demand, new infrastructure like the RTS link, and a substantial pipeline of new affordable and mid priced home construction. 

“The data we’ve cited here should help reduce any anxiety about the impact the election could have on the market. I believe the strong economy and new infrastructure matter far more than the election calendar.” 

-END-

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