Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is an important sign for the country’s growth. Generally, higher consumption of demand for goods and services meant an expansion in the provision of those goods and services and to supply more, then more jobs will need to be created and this cycle continues. In 2020, Malaysia was affected by the Covid-19 and our economy actually contracted 5.6%.
This meant that there are less demand for goods and services and this meant the supply had to be reduced and yes, unemployment has increased too. What would be happening this year then to the GDP of Malaysia. Specifically GDP growth for 2021?
Fitch Ratings on Malaysia’s GDP
Fitch Ratings said that because of a potential stagnating economy for the rest of 2021, it has forecasted that Malaysia’s GDP growth for 2021 will be zero. It’s earlier prediction was for a 4.9% growth for Malaysia in 2021. Briefly, it is expecting Malaysia to fare much worse versus their earlier prediction which can now be considered as too bullish?
Do note that Fitch Ratings have a lot of data at their disposal, thus their prediction is likely to be based on those numbers and then they do some conclusions and thus came to their prediction of zero GDP growth for Malaysia in 2021. Article for reference in malaymail.com is here.
MARC on Malaysia’s GDP
The Malaysian Rating Corporation Bhd (MARC) has maintained its forecast for Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 3.9 per cent for the full year 2021. It foresees a slight contraction of GDP in the third quarter (Q3) of 2021 because of the intermittent lockdowns. Please do read the full article in nst.com.my here for their prediction.
Can Q3 2021 be positive then?
Based on MARC’s prediction, Q3 2021 is likely to be a contraction. I wonder what IF the economy is nearly fully reopened within Q3 of 2021, say for full month of September, there’s a chance we will not have a contraction? We can only see since 20th August 2021 which is today, all dine-ins are allowed.
As reported in many Facebook postings (I mean my own FB page), some restaurants have decided not to allow dine-in yet. Some people say that they still prefer to take-away versus dine-in. However, this is still in August. We will see what happens generally in September. Anyway, just need to remember this is what our DG Noor Hisham said yeah. Image below.
What’s kopiandproperty.com prediction then?
I have no access to any special data. However, most predictions are based on… predictions yeah. So, with access to continuous reading and the feeling on the ground, especially from my friends who are business owners, friends who are RENS, friends who are working fulltime and close friends too, I shall predict a GDP growth of a positive 3.918% growth then.
Why must it be 4 numbers? Erm… I will leave it to you to think why. Remember… this is just a prediction. Do not take it too seriously yeah. Happy understanding that predictions are not going to stop us from doing more, doing better and keep moving.
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