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Unemployment rising? Financial crisis probability? Here’s the update.

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aerial photography of container van lot

Unemployment rising? Financial crisis probability? Here’s the update. Please always remember NOT to believe any property guru who tells you how bad the economy is and then tells you to buy a property yeah. If economy is doing badly, please be aware that the property market should also not be doing well.

We do have a good news. April’s unemployment rate is 4.6% and this lowest since October 2020. That’s like not bad. The number of unemployed is at 742.7 thousand persons. HOWEVER, our COVID-19 numbers look terrible in May and our FMCO started in June as well. In other words, this April unemployment number may be the lowest we would reach for the next few months. Surely the unemployment will go up because of all the lockdowns. Many may have lost their day job and is now struggling to make ends meet.

Image below from dosm.gov.my

Article in themalaysianreserve.com Chief Statistician Datuk Seri Dr Mohd Uzir Mahidin said the Malaysia’s labour force continued to be on a recovery path in April 2021 as Recovery Movement Control Order (MCO) in most states and Conditional MCO gave more opportunities for businesses to continue their activities in full capacity while adhering to strict standard operating procedures.

He said, “Hence, the number of labour force in April 2021 recorded MoM increase of 0.1% or an addition of 12,200 persons to record 16.09 million persons (March 2021: 16.08 million persons).” Do read the full article here: Article in themalaysianreserve.com

Unemployment should rise but financial crisis unlikely unless…

If we look at the countries where they have lots and lots of Covid-19 vaccines (yeah, those countries they have more than enough vaccines and now one is telling the world that they will donate some of these…) and have already vaccinated enough of their populations to reach 50% with at least one dose, we would realize that they have continuously relaxed their rules and in fact even football games could have a certain number of attendance already.

For Malaysia, well we are still in a lockdown and this is why I also believe that our unemployment may rise slightly. However, as soon as our vaccinations reach 70% for Selangor, Kuala Lumpur, then the economic activities will become stronger again. We need to remember yeah, a holiday at some beach resort even within Selangor is likely to be very welcomed after such a long time stuck at home. If we look at the malls just before our current lockdown, it was very close to normalising.

In other words, people are still people. We still need to socialise and when we socialise, we would spend more money… We need to also remember that Malaysia is a trading nation. As long as most of our biggest trading partners are recovering, we will be able to export more. To export more, we need to manufacture more, to manufacture more, we need more people… The cycle continues. Our top 5 trading partners are as below. Info from World Bank. Click here for it if you like.

If look at these 5, we should realise, we are going to do quite well. All the 5 are not within the worst affected countries. One has recovered fully (China), three has Covid-19 under control and one more, United States have already vaccinated slightly over 50% of its population and has seen economic activities increase again. Happy spending more when we could drop by malls again.

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