Everyone knows we are going to have negative GDP this year. Will there be a V-shaped recovery for ASEAN then?
We could not yet shake off COVID-19. It is still around and in some countries, it has gotten worse. In fact some are fearing the the winter months will bring an even higher number of cases as COVID-19 is ‘helped’ by the flu season which comes every year. The consolation is that vaccines for COVID-19, if it comes to an emergency is said to be ready from both China and Russia. As for all other countries, probably it should be almost ready by year end? Let’s look at some economy news for ASEAN.
Press Release by Asean Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO).
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) just released our revised forecast for ASEAN+3 economies.
The region has been severely affected by containment measures, and growth is forecast to decline by 0.3 percent in 2020. Nine of our 14 members are expected to contract this year, some very significantly.
We are projecting a strong V-shaped recovery in GDP growth in 2021, particularly for the Plus-3. The region as a whole is projected to expand at 6.7 percent, with all economies forecast to return to positive growth—predicated on the effective containment of the pandemic, both regionally and globally, and on the assumption that exits from policy measures proceed smoothly.
Please see below our revised projections for 2020 and 2021. For updates and new research about the impact of the pandemic on regional economies, please visit our webpage COVID-19 in Focus.
— end of press release —
Briefly, AMRO is predicting that the U-shaped recovery they predicted earlier is now becoming a V-shaped recovery for ASEAN. This is definitely a good news to have. Someone asked me if we will go back to Movement Control Order if the number of cases continue to spike. I could not speak on behalf of the Health Ministry but I do know that if the clusters are identified, then they will be contained on site instead of closing all businesses and plunging the whole nation into an economic crisis.
Just my 2 cents yeah. As a Malaysian, of course I would be happy to cheer for a V-shaped recovery for ASEAN. Cheers.
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