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Is the worst over for the economy?

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Someone I would like to have coffee and learn from in the near future posted this in his FB page. It’s a good snapshot of Malaysia’s economy. So, the question is this, “is the worst over for the economy?’

One important takeaway if the worst is over: What are the decisions we want to make if we know the worst is over. Move quickly into the stock market? Aim at buying below market value properties? Whatever it is, better start thinking about it. One recent action by BNM gave some clues. BNM kept rates unchanged

If the worst is NOT over, then we need to ask ourselves, what are the signs that will provide us with the answer. The reason is a simple one. Everyone wants to invest at the start of a recovery because that’s where they will get better returns. if they were to only invest when the market is halfway to the peak, their returns would be lower and their risks would be higher too.

Would the job market provide a clue? Since people could only spend if they have a job right. Please do refer to the image from theedgemarkets.com

is the worst over for the economy
image from theedgemarkets.com

Briefly:

Consumer Price Index has showed that the demand for goods are not strong. It’s in the negative. Retail sector is also not doing well but this is also expected because of the MCO followed by the CMCO. We are now in RMCO… (recovery…)

Unemployment remains high compared to our past historical numbers. This is expected to continue it’s slow downtrend until end of the year with an analyst predicting it to be 4.5%. (read here)

Exports are still ahead of imports which meant that we have trade surplus and ACTUALLY the ringgit should strengthen but it has not. Somehow people still believe that a country with trade deficit should have a strong currency. Whatever…

There’s FDI too and it came from the Netherlands, British Virgin Islands and Singapore… Perhaps in the near future, China will be back in the top 3. We will wait for a while. Let them recover strongly first.

What do I believe? I believe the worst is over even if we have seen the number of COVID-19 cases going up. I believe with sufficient identification of new clusters as and when they happen, we do not need to lock down the whole country. It’s way better that we deal with the issue at the source. We are not in the blind these days. We have immediate info to take immediate action. So, my thinking is a simple one. Unless our cases suddenly went up due to some unforeseen circumstances, MCO will not make a comeback. Happy buying.

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Next suggested article: 5 questions on property investment in Greater KL.

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