You know, it’s always ‘what if’ and ‘if only’ when it comes to opportunities knocking. I should have joined that startup 3 years ago and today I would have become a multi-millionaire. I should have bought that RM500,000 shop 10 years ago and today I would be laughing to the bank. What should have happened however has happened and perhaps the only available alternative is to look ahead. Read about the advanced economies, read about the emerging ones and then sort of anticipate what may happen. Always take a longer term view because if it’s not, then we better ‘dump’ Australia because it’s going through a rough patch currently. Okay, so we are not going to dump Australia, then what about Malaysia then? Let’s see what some analysts are saying.
Article in thestar.com.my Tim Love who manages about $1 billion of emerging-market equities in London for a unit of GAM Holding AG said, “I don’t think I need to rush into Malaysia at the moment. Even with the valuation attraction which is now definitely coming up clearly, I don’t think that the outlook is clear enough.” (Remember, he said valuation is attractive but the outlook is not clear enough.)
Delphine Arrighi, a London-based portfolio manager at Merian Global Investors which oversees $37 billion said, “We’ve been neutral Malaysian government bonds for a while now. The decision by the central bank a couple of years ago to shut down the NDF market has essentially made it impossible to hedge bond exposure. I doubt offshore investors will now return en masse.” (Okay, she is against the NDF market decision by BNM. Here’s one article about the NDF move yeah. By the way, BNM guards against speculative activities and I am definitelyon BNM’s side. Read here. )
Yong Shao Fung, senior portfolio manager at Nikko’s Asian fixed income team in Singapore said, “Real yields are still relatively high compared to peers but the downside risks have increased, including re-balancing due to the FTSE Russell headlines.” (Note that Yong said that real yields are relatively high compared to peers BUT downside risks have increased.)
Article also said that the ringgit has weakened more than 2% since reaching an eight-month high in March, hurt by equity outflows and a stronger dollar. (Somehow… nothing about a bad economy. It’s all about what happens when some external things happen)
(Not all are against buying into Malaysia yeah.) SPI Asset Management says that the fears of an outflow are overdone and that any likely impact will be supported by a presence of a large pool of domestic investors, and easier monetary policy. Stephen Innes, SPI Asset’s head of trading and market strategy said, “Ultimately the currency markets will need to price in the bond outflow which could trigger some short term sell-off in equities.” He concluded with this, “But for the equity and bond markets, the rate cut will support both and come September we will be asking ourselves why didn’t we buy more when there was blood on the street.” Article in thestar.com.my
Okay, this is documented in kopiandproperty.com already. If we are investing, take a longer term approach. This is because we are not managing some funds and must show profits every quarter yeah. Most working professionals will continue to have monthly salaries while investment will be for the long term. Perhaps a continuous affair until they retire in the future. This is why it’s very important to read between the lines. The fact remains, these assessments by all these huge fund managers are negative only because of short term negatives. I would even rate most of their statements as positive for Malaysia. The questions is, “not exactly the best time should actually mean the very best time?” Happy investing.
written on 15th May 2019
Next suggested article: Higher yields also mean higher risks