It’s not easy to get back the belief once we are stereotyped. Well, I think for the export numbers thus far, it’s not everything bad with a weaker Ringgit. Of course the GDP growth is supported by rising exports but the retail sector is not doing well it seems. Many window shoppers perhaps but fewer buying these days. In fact, when my friend Miichael Yeoh asked for comments about whether the property market is up or down, I would say most of the comments were on the negative side. Miichael summed it up by saying the property investment would always have its risks. One sign of whether the economy is getting better or worse would be the international reserves numbers. The more trade surplus, the higher the reserves would rise. The higher the deficit, it should be on its way down. It is currently up. Below is from www.bnm.gov.my
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The international reserves of Bank Negara Malaysia amounted to USD100.4 billion (equivalent to RM431.0 billion) as at 15 August 2017. The reserves position is sufficient to finance 7.9 months of retained imports and is 1.1 times the short-term external debt.
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Besides that, as reported in theedgeproperty.com.my, CIMB Investment Bank Bhd and Public Investment Bank Bhd said Bank Negara Malaysia is expected to maintain the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) at 3% until end of 2017, after Malaysia reported second quarter (2Q17)economic growth at 5.8% from a year earlier. CIMB shared, “With the economy exhibiting resilience, we think monetary policy will remain on an extended pause, and hence reiterate an end-2017 Overnight Policy Rate forecast of 3.00%. Malaysia’s external position remains exposed to the volatility of portfolio flows, which are susceptible to turning on a dime, when market sentiment weakens.” Public Investment gave its views about inflation and the economy. “Additionally, the pressure to inflation is likely to be transitory in nature. Given that, we don’t foresee the need for OPR to be adjusted either way, as it is seen as accommodative and conducive for the economy.” My personal views earlier here: Hike Interest Rates? But why…. Happy believing.
written on 23 Aug 2017
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