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Nothing much until 2018/ 2019 and peaking in 2020 / 2021

I wrote about this before. Assuming recovery of property transactions by 2018, what should be our actions today? Wait? View? Or better start identifying some potential buys? It’s individual decision. It’s definitely nowhere near the buy, buy, buy state of course. In fact most of my friends still believe property investment is a must but when pressed for an answer of when to buy, most answered not anytime soon. The fear of prices falling continuously remains high. Negative sentiment is still prevailing.

Another prediction about the state of the property market here in Malaysia was reported by The Sun Daily. These are the two comments by AXIS REIT Managers Bhd head investments Siva Shanker. “In 2018/2019 we will see the market beginning to level out and start its upward trend again while in 2020/2021 we will see the market peaking again.” He also said something which I shared with a property developer GM just hours ago. Current sentiment is negative even if there are still buyers who can buy. Siva shared, “Although things are looking bad now, it won’t be like that forever. Everything is a cycle. 2017 will see the market finding its level and the kneejerk reaction will subside.” He was speaking at the Rahim & Co Research’s seminar entitled “The Malaysian Property Market: Opportunities amidst Uncertainties.”

Everyone should note that the prediction icon the recovery of number of transactions and not on the actual property prices. Based on what we can see from the ever increasing number of affordable homes being offered, I believe the average property prices would continue to stabilise at current levels or even fall slightly. Let’s see if I am right. However with falling prices, it also meant the size of the homes would fall too.  A friend who’s a GM of a listed developer company said, ‘with some of the sizes being offered today, it is mostly suitable for bachelors / singles. It’s definitely not built for families.’ I think he is right especially for the SOHOs but from 2002 till 2006, I was staying in an apartment of 700 sq ft with my wife, my sister and my brother-in-law. Yes, total of 4 pax with occasional visits by my brother. Somehow, when it’s necessary the willingness to accept will be higher. Just look at more advanced property markets to understand what’s happening in future. Happy following.

written on 3 Nov 2016

Next suggested article:  Why are people still buying properties?

 

 

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2 Comments

  • asali on November 3, 2016

    Credibility is low for Mr Shiva as he always changed his prediction since year 2014. 🙂

    The developers unsold stocks remain high especially those priced at 400K and above. As we can seen that they are dramatically now as budget 2017 does not really benefits them. They’re always tell the public that property prices will not fall because of high construction cost involving, Banks too restriction and now they blame compliance cost taken up 20% or more. I dunno know what’s the next they will put a table if unsold unit still prevailing. 🙂 Why are they not telling all these when property market is good?

    I am seeing the time now is not favorite to developer or any sellers unlike in year 2009/2010/2011/2012/2013.

    • charles on November 5, 2016

      Thanks Asali. In terms of predictions, I think everyone can predict all they want. For me, I will always believe in my personal judgements after I have seen the place. In terms of timing, I seriously do not believe the years of 2009 – 2012 would ever return, not just within the next few years.

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