2015: Fertility Rate dropped to 1.9 for Malaysia.

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If you missed this, I think this is worth our time. However the political scenario may change, this new piece of statistics should get us planning for our future with more clarity. The current population of Malaysia is 30.4 million. Of course, we also need to include the many millions of legal and illegal foreign workers. The fertility rate is however decreasing. It’s only 1.9 in 2015. In other words, Malaysia is going to have lesser population if this trend continues. For growth, the typical rate should be 2.2 or higher. In fact it was as high as three just 15 years ago.

Yes, if you want to start debating about how the government is not doing enough, thus everyone could not support themselves and thus the birth rate is declining, then please look at Singapore. The fertility rate is just 1.1  So, please throw whatever political view out and understand, this is just how the modern society moves. Look beyond Malaysia to understand more. Since everyone is clear now, what would happen in the future? Well, the population is still considered very young which meant that demand for that property you have in your hand today should be quite safe. By 2020, 50 percent of the population will be aged over 29.9 years. Wow. This is a very good number, for those who already have an affordable property today, right?

By 2030, those aged 60 and above are expected to increase to 12.6 percent. Take a look at some of the retirement homes which are starting to sprout in Malaysia. Of course in countries such as Australia, the UK or the United States, these are already quite established. Read here: Retirement Village – What and Why?  Nope, do not rush into opening more of these retirement homes yet. We will have to see if Malaysians also love these too.

One more important point to note also would be that the current generation may not be getting married so early in the future. The chances of them having lesser babies are also very real. If you look at it this way, the implications would be that the size of homes in the future may actually shrink and it’s acceptable. Look at Hong Kong, with its 190 sf flats. Or look at those sub S$300,000 HDB flats in Singapore which are all smaller than 800sf today. The trend would be coming. A family of 3 or 4 may not want a 650sf serviced apartment but a single would prefer it.

So, if you are married, are you having or thinking of having more than 2 babies? Suddenly, we are clear that this fertility rate of 1.9 is definitely not sustainable. Another 15 years, who knows, it may be close to what Singapore is having today. As for Singapore, I think their goal of 6.9 million population by 2030 would have to be supplemented by lots of foreigners. I think majority may be Malaysians, who may be staying in Iskandar by then. We shall see. In the mean time, think property. The right one will bring you a happy ending story.

written on 2 Aug 2015

Next suggested article: Is it doom and gloom or boom and vroom?


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