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Suddenly, now everything’s good? Haha.

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I remember just weeks ago, reports after reports said that Ringgit was doomed, that the Bursa will be continuously negative because of a host of many reasons. One recent report even stated that Malaysia is the weakest ASEAN country. It’s ok, I am very sure they must done their research using statistics I do not have access to. However, based on my little knowledge thus far, fundamentals do not suddenly change. Thus, how can everything just turned around suddenly within this one week? One of my colleague even said that the current uptrend is because the government is doing something behind the scene. I think this colleague must be right and he must be a very well connected person. 🙂  It has been a good week. Ringgit is up again vs some of the currencies it went down against and is up versus many other even weaker currencies such as Yen and Pound. So, would this trend be continuing? Well, a report said that based on the usual calculations for the stock market, Bursa is expected to continue its rebound next week. Haha. What if the US market dropped next week? Would their predictions still come true?

I hope you now get what I wanted to say. Whenever we invest, invest with sufficient knowledge. Not based on full knowledge because no one would have full knowledge. Not even those who tell you their predictions have been true all these years. Should we buy a certain stock? That should depend on it’s actual performance for the past many years and how much you believe its performance moving forward. Buy with a long term view, not based on short term expectations. When we speculate and we won, it’s called luck. Nothing more nothing less. Should we buy a property? It should depend on the property and whether the market is up or down. Would it better to buy when the property market is up or down? Even better question, why are the super rich snapping up properties during bad times? Why are so many greedy people got caught for buying a property during the uptrend and in the midst of completion, the market slowed and suddenly they got to know that they have bought an overpriced property?

For past many weeks, the stock market is volatile and coming down because of the faltering oil prices. Today, the oil prices remain low. So, it meant nothing has changed, right? Ringgit is said to be depreciating but if you compare it versus many other currencies, is it true that that is the sole reason? I think the only currency which is contributing to whatever changes thus far, at least for the short term is just the US$. It’s always about what happens there and then people would find some reasons to explain about the fluctuations. Oh yeah, the latest report said that the equity investors suddenly feel that lower oil prices may not be that bad after all. So, suddenly, now they accept lower oil prices. In US, The Dow has surged 2.43% and S&P 500 gained 2.4% too. Do not be too happy if S&P continues to rise though. Once it hits 2,250, the stock market will crash and recession will start. Read here: Bubble will burst when S&P 500-stock index reaches 2250.

Great. Now, what should we believe? I believe we should believe ourselves and I believe we should read more from all different medias. Sometimes, we may be wrong but truth is, the probability of us being wrong versus the experts are not that high. The experts are right 50% of the time. I think we may stand a chance for a 50% right too. Happy reading and investing.

written on 20th December 2014

Next suggested article: USA: 48% of banks lower lending standards

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