So many people have said so many different things. Predictions ranges from frothiness or potential bubble or prices continuing to go up. Recently, the highlight was on the potential for secondary market to start shining after being overshadowed by new launchings since 2010. This coming weekend, I will start sharing some very enlightening and interesting statistics from Mr. Michael Geh, Senior Partner of Raine & Horne a.k.a Master of Property Statistics here in Malaysia. For now, let’s look at all the diverse views from the analysts as well as industry associations for the past few weeks.
CIMB Research – They believe that the current slowdown is due to all the cooling measures which has been undertaken and thus the market may need time to digest it. However, as soon as the market accepts that the house prices are unlikely to fall a lot, it will rebound. They expected the market to come back alive by H2 of 2014. That’s just 5.5 months away. Source: The Star, 3rd January 2014.
RHB Research – Mostly they are neutral on the property sector and if you love stocks, you may want to lok at their top picks which are: IJM Land Bhd, Tambun Indah Land Bhd and Matrix Concepts Holdings. It expects the property prices to be flattish and even the volumes declining by between 5-10% this year; 2014. The only sparkle may be Penang as they feel that there are some positive catalysts there this year. Source: The Star, 7th January 2014
MIEA – MIEA President said that the property market may need two years to recover from its current uncertainty. In fact the primary market is likely to be slowed down tremendously and the shine would now start on secondary properties which are up to 50% in certain areas compared to the new properties. Source: The Star, 12th January 2014
Wealth Mastery Academy – According to Datuk Terry One, foreign buyers are unlikely to be hard hit by the RM1 million requirement. This is because of the fact that it remains to be affordable to these investors especially when compared to the region. In fact, there’s abundant of new developments projects as well as investor-friendly policies. Some areas he feel would continue to boom are: Greater Kuala Lumpur, Iskandar Malaysia in Johor, Penang and Malacca. Source: Malaysian Chronicle, 3rd January 2014
REHDA – President Datuk Seri Michael Yam said the at the Budget 2014 has impacted the property market substantially. This caused negative sentiment to flood the market. The industry as well as consumers would now take a more conservative approach both with regards to new sales launches or buying decisions. Source: The Star, 27th December 2013
Read more news online. Dozens of other articles online if not more. Believe what you want to believe. To summarise briefly, if you believe what CIMB Research is saying, you better buy now and wait for the uptrend. If you intend to sell, then wait till 2nd Half. If you believe MIEA, it’s time to seriously go into secondary market instead of new launches. If you believe REHDA, I think there would be more launches which are priced more conservatively or there may be fewer launches in 2014? If you believe Wealth Mastery, the foreign buying is not stopping because the RM1 million price is still very low compared to regional markets. I am not sure if foreign purchase would keep coming but in comparison, yes we are still cheap even compared to the region. If you think RHB is going to be right, you can buy the stocks they recommended or travel to Penang and view properties now. Buying stocks are easier than buying property though, much easier.
Most importantly, take action. Of course, even a ‘no action’ is also one form of action.
written on 14 Jan 2014
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